The review was triggered by a recent report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the prevalence of circumcision among males aged 14 to 59 years in the United States.1x1Introcaso, C.E., Xu, F., Kilmarx, P.H. et al. Prevalence of circumcision among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years in the United States, national health and nutrition examination surveys 2005-2010. Sex Transm Dis. 2013;
40: 521–525
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (18) | Google ScholarSee all References The CDC data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANESs) for 2005 to 2010, in which interviews were administered to a nationally representative sample of 6294 males. The CDC researchers estimated total circumcision prevalence to be 80.5% (Table 1Table 1). Racial differences were apparent: Prevalence was 90.8% in non-Hispanic white, 75.7% in non-Hispanic black, and 44.0% in Mexican American males. The recent figures are higher than in the CDC’s previous report based on NHANES data for 1999 to 20042x2Xu, F., Markowitz, L.E., Sternberg, M.R., and Aral, S.O. Prevalence of circumcision and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection in men in the United States: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2004. Sex Transm Dis. 2007;
34: 479–484
PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References (Table 1Table 1).
Table 1Comparison of Total Circumcision Prevalence in Men and Boys Aged 14 to 59 Years in 2005 to 20101x1Introcaso, C.E., Xu, F., Kilmarx, P.H. et al. Prevalence of circumcision among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years in the United States, national health and nutrition examination surveys 2005-2010. Sex Transm Dis. 2013;
40: 521–525
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (18) | Google ScholarSee all References Compared With 1999 to 20042x2Xu, F., Markowitz, L.E., Sternberg, M.R., and Aral, S.O. Prevalence of circumcision and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection in men in the United States: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2004. Sex Transm Dis. 2007;
34: 479–484
PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References| Race/ethnicity | Prevalence (% [95% CI]) | Change (%) |
|---|
| 1999-2004 | 2005-2010 |
|---|
| Overall | 79 (77-80) | 80.5 (78.4-82.5) | +2.5 |
| Non-Hispanic white | 88 (87-90) | 90.8 (89.1-92.6) | +3.4 |
| Non-Hispanic black | 73 (69-77) | 75.7 (72.0-79.4) | +4.1 |
| Mexican American | 42 (43-57) | 44.0 (41.0-46.9) | +4.8 |
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Because these data are for males aged 14 to 59 years—and most circumcisions in the United States take place during the neonatal period—they largely reflect past practice. What happened in the 1950s through the 1990s may not be what is happening today.
Estimates of prevalence of neonatal circumcision generally rely on hospital discharge data.3x3Owings M, Uddin S, Williams S. Trends in circumcision for male newborns in U.S. hospitals: 1979-2010. National Center for Health Statistics website. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/circumcision_2013/circumcision_2013.pdf. Accessed September 5, 2013.
Google ScholarSee all References Such figures are taken from records of procedures performed during the neonatal hospital stay. However, few studies have investigated the reliability of hospital discharge data as an estimate of neonatal circumcision prevalence; those that have done so have found a substantial discrepancy. A survey in Maryland found that the prevalence was 75.3% based on hospital discharge data but 82.3% based on a postpartum survey.4x4Cheng, D., Hurt, L., and Horon, I.L. Neonatal circumcision in Maryland: a comparison of hospital discharge and maternal postpartum survey data. J Pediatr Urol. 2008;
4: 448–451
Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (3) | Google ScholarSee all References An earlier study in Atlanta found that circumcision was recorded for only 84.3% of boys who had received a circumcision.5x5O'Brien, T.R., Calle, E.E., and Poole, W.K. Incidence of neonatal circumcision in Atlanta, 1985-1986. Southern Med J. 1995;
88: 411–415
Crossref | PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References In referring to their sample in July 1985, the authors stated, “If we had relied solely on [summary information in the medical record, usually found on the face sheet] we would have estimated that the circumcision rate for that period was 75.3% rather than 89.3%.”5x5O'Brien, T.R., Calle, E.E., and Poole, W.K. Incidence of neonatal circumcision in Atlanta, 1985-1986. Southern Med J. 1995;
88: 411–415
Crossref | PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References,p.414
These previous comparisons have been of local samples only. To better ascertain recent trends nationally, we considered it instructive to critically compare the new NHANES findings with National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) data for 1979 to 2010 as reported recently by the CDC.3x3Owings M, Uddin S, Williams S. Trends in circumcision for male newborns in U.S. hospitals: 1979-2010. National Center for Health Statistics website. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/circumcision_2013/circumcision_2013.pdf. Accessed September 5, 2013.
Google ScholarSee all References The present evaluation, therefore, updates the comparison of NHANES and NHDS data by Waskett in 2007.6x6Waskett, J.H. Hospital discharge data underestimate circumcision rates. Sex Transm Dis. 2007;
34: 624
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (1) | Google ScholarSee all References That study was limited by having only 1980s births available for comparison. The present analysis is, therefore, more informative.
We show in Table 2Table 2 the prevalence of circumcision in the NHANES and NHDS samples for comparable birth years. It is readily apparent that NHANES data show a substantially higher prevalence of circumcision than suggested by the NHDS figures. The recent NHDS analysis did note in the first paragraph, however, that their figures “do not include circumcisions performed outside the hospital setting [...] or those performed at any age following discharge from the birth hospitalization.”3x3Owings M, Uddin S, Williams S. Trends in circumcision for male newborns in U.S. hospitals: 1979-2010. National Center for Health Statistics website. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/circumcision_2013/circumcision_2013.pdf. Accessed September 5, 2013.
Google ScholarSee all References The present article refers to nonhospital and postdischarge circumcisions as “unrecorded circumcisions.” The number of these can be estimated by comparison of NHDS data with NHANES data, where the latter records circumcisions performed at any time and any location.
Our calculation involved the following formula: a = i + u(1 – i), where a is the prevalence from NHANES data for men and boys aged 14 to 59 years (which, for convenience, is referred to as “adult circumcisions” for the purpose of this article), i is the prevalence in infancy as captured by NHDS data, and u represents unrecorded circumcisions. Thus, u can be obtained from values for a and i using simple algebra, ie, u = (a – i) / (–i + 1). An explanation of the rationale for this formula appears in the Supplemental AppendixSupplemental Appendix (available online at http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org). Values for these unrecorded circumcisions are shown in Table 2Table 2, alongside the percentage of males deemed by raw NHDS data to be uncircumcised and the percentage who were actually found to be circumcised according to the NHANESs of adults and older boys.
The percentage of unrecorded circumcisions is similar across the 3 groups of birth years. The figure is somewhat smaller for the most recent birth years (1990-1996). This finding may be the result of a random fluctuation or a downward trend, or it may reflect the fact that this cohort includes males as young as 14 years, who have had less time in which to be circumcised, although circumcision later in childhood is much less common than during the neonatal period. Using data from the local studies in Maryland4x4Cheng, D., Hurt, L., and Horon, I.L. Neonatal circumcision in Maryland: a comparison of hospital discharge and maternal postpartum survey data. J Pediatr Urol. 2008;
4: 448–451
Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (3) | Google ScholarSee all References and Atlanta5x5O'Brien, T.R., Calle, E.E., and Poole, W.K. Incidence of neonatal circumcision in Atlanta, 1985-1986. Southern Med J. 1995;
88: 411–415
Crossref | PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References discussed previously herein, we calculate that unrecorded circumcisions in these studies were 28.3% and 56.7%, respectively, ie, they were comparable with those in Table 2Table 2 for national data.
We found the mean percentage of unrecorded circumcisions in Table 2Table 2 to be 45.4%. On the basis of this figure, we provide in Table 3Table 3 predictions for the prevalence of adult circumcision in males born between 1997 and 2010. Although we found that there has been a decline in the prevalence of circumcision from the peak of 83.3% in 1960 to 1969,1x1Introcaso, C.E., Xu, F., Kilmarx, P.H. et al. Prevalence of circumcision among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years in the United States, national health and nutrition examination surveys 2005-2010. Sex Transm Dis. 2013;
40: 521–525
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (18) | Google ScholarSee all References the decline is comparatively small, having fallen only 6.1 percentage points from the 1960 to 1969 birth cohort to the 2010 birth cohort (ie, 83.3 – 77.2 = 6.1).
Table 3Projected Adult Prevalence of Circumcision| Birth years | Prevalence (%) |
|---|
| NHDS | Adult |
|---|
| 1997-1999 | 62.5 | 79.5 |
| 2000-2009 | 58.0 | 77.1 |
| 2010 | 58.3 | 77.2 |
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Based on the information previously herein, we show in the FigureFigure the overall prevalence of circumcision in the United States from the late 1940s to 2010.

Figure
Prevalence of adult circumcision in the United States during the past 6 decades (1948-2010).1x1Introcaso, C.E., Xu, F., Kilmarx, P.H. et al. Prevalence of circumcision among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years in the United States, national health and nutrition examination surveys 2005-2010. Sex Transm Dis. 2013;
40: 521–525
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (18) | Google ScholarSee all References, 2x2Xu, F., Markowitz, L.E., Sternberg, M.R., and Aral, S.O. Prevalence of circumcision and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection in men in the United States: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2004. Sex Transm Dis. 2007;
34: 479–484
PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References, 7x7Slaby, A.R. and Drizd, T. Circumcision in the United States. Am J Public Health. 1985;
75: 878–880
Crossref | PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References, 8x8Laumann, E.O., Maal, C.M., and Zuckerman, E.W. Circumcision in the United States: prevalence, prophyactic effects, and sexual practice. JAMA. 1997;
277: 1052–1057
Crossref | PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References The solid line represents documented prevalence among adults; dashed line, our predictions (see the text for how this was derived).
Earlier NHDS data to the year 2000 found an increase in neonatal circumcision from 48.3% of newborns in 1988 to 1991 to 61.1% in 1997 to 2000 (P<.0001).9x9Nelson, C.P., Dunn, R., Wan, J., and Wei, J.T. The increasing incidence of newborn circumcision: data from the nationwide inpatient sample. J Urol. 2005;
173: 978–981
Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (70) | Google ScholarSee all References These rates came from a study of 4,657,402 newborn male hospitalizations from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample that identified newborns who underwent circumcision during a 13-year period using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision procedure codes. A 2011 CDC report based on NHDS statistics found, however, a decrease from 62.5% in 1999 to 56.9% in 2008.10x10Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Trends in in-hospital newborn male circumcision—United States, 1999-2010. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2011;
60: 1167–1168 ()
PubMed | Google ScholarSee all References
Thus, despite the 2013 CDC report based on NHANES data for 2005 to 2010 having shown that circumcision prevalence has risen marginally in all racial groups, the present analysis reveals a 6 percentage point fall in the overall prevalence of newborn circumcision in recent times. The main reason is most likely the much faster increase in the Hispanic population,11x11Campbell PR. Population projections for states by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1995 to 2025. PPL-47. http://www.census.gov/population/projections/files/methodology/ppl47.pdf. Published 1996. Accessed December 29, 2013.
Google ScholarSee all References the ethnic group having the lowest circumcision prevalence. The burgeoning Hispanic population in the West accounts for most of the decrease in national prevalence.3x3Owings M, Uddin S, Williams S. Trends in circumcision for male newborns in U.S. hospitals: 1979-2010. National Center for Health Statistics website. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/circumcision_2013/circumcision_2013.pdf. Accessed September 5, 2013.
Google ScholarSee all References Because Hispanic and black individuals are overrepresented in poorer demographics, the withdrawal of Medicaid funding for elective circumcision in 18 states is of concern to public health,12x12Leibowitz, A.A., Desmond, K., and Belin, T. Determinants and policy implications of male circumcision in the United States. Am J Public Health. 2009;
99: 138–145
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (49) | Google ScholarSee all References, 13x13Morris, B.J., Bailis, S.A., Waskett, J.H. et al. Medicaid coverage of newborn circumcision: a health parity right of the poor. Am J Public Health. 2009;
99: 969–971
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (10) | Google ScholarSee all References as was also expressed by the authors of the CDC’s recent report.1x1Introcaso, C.E., Xu, F., Kilmarx, P.H. et al. Prevalence of circumcision among men and boys aged 14 to 59 years in the United States, national health and nutrition examination surveys 2005-2010. Sex Transm Dis. 2013;
40: 521–525
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (18) | Google ScholarSee all References After controlling for other factors, states with Medicaid coverage had hospital circumcision rates 24 percentage points higher than states without such coverage.12x12Leibowitz, A.A., Desmond, K., and Belin, T. Determinants and policy implications of male circumcision in the United States. Am J Public Health. 2009;
99: 138–145
Crossref | PubMed | Scopus (49) | Google ScholarSee all References